Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting intraoperative hypotension in cardiac valve replacement

Abstract

Background: Cardiac valve replacement risks include intraoperative hypotension, endangering organ perfusion. Our nomogram predicted hypotension risk in valve surgery, guiding early intervention. Methods: Analyzing 561 patients from July to November 2022, we developed a nomogram to predict hypotension in valve replacement patients, validated using data from December 2022 to January 2023 on 241 patients, with robust statistical confirmation. Results: Our study identified age, hypertension, left ventricular ejection fraction and serum creatinine as hypotension predictors. The resulting nomogram, validated with high concordance index and area under the curve scores, provided a clinically useful tool for managing intraoperative risk. Conclusion: For valve replacement patients, factors like age, hypertension, low left ventricular ejection fraction and high serum creatinine predicted hypotension risk. Our nomogram enabled clinicians to quantify this risk and proactively manage it.