A New Staging System Based on the Dynamic Prognostic Nomogram for Elderly Patients With Primary Gastrointestinal Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma

Abstract

ObjectiveThe purpose of this study is to establish an accurate prognostic model based on important clinical parameters to predict the overall survival (OS) of elderly patients with primary gastrointestinal diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (EGI DLBCL).MethodsThe Cox regression analysis is based on data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.ResultsA total of 1,783 EGI DLBCL cases were eligible for the study [median (interquartile range, IQR) age, 75 (68–82) years; 974 (54.63%) males], of which 1,248 were randomly assigned to the development cohort, while 535 were into the validation cohort. A more accurate and convenient dynamic prognostic nomogram based on age, stage, radiation, and chemotherapy was developed and validated, of which the predictive performance was superior to that of the Ann Arbor staging system [C-index:0.69 (95% CI:0.67–0.71) vs. 56 (95%CI:0.54–0.58); P < 0.001]. The 3- and 5-year AUC values of ROC curves for 3-year OS and 5-year OS in the development cohort and the validation cohort were were alll above 0.7.ConclusionWe establish and validate a more accurate and convenient dynamic prognostic nomogram for patients with EGI DLBCL, which can provide evidence for individual treatment and follow-up.