Wind-wave forecasting in enclosed basins using statistically downscaled global wind forcing

Abstract

Accurate wind-wave forecasting in enclosed and semi-enclosed basins is a challenging task, demanding primarily for high-resolution wind forcing at regional scale. This is generally obtained with dynamical downscaling from a low-to-mid resolution atmospheric model. In this context, a new wave forecasting system for the marginal Adriatic Sea is herein presented aimed at proposing an alternative strategy for accurate wind-wave forecasting in (semi-) enclosed basins that does not require an ad-hoc regional atmospheric model. The system is based on the state-of-the-art WAVEWATCH III® spectral wave model forced by the global IFS-ECMWF forecast. At first, wind speed is quantile-corrected to account for the systematic underestimation over the Adriatic Sea. Then, the significant wave height in the target region and for regimes associated with marine storms is calibrated following standard procedure. Wind and wave observations from different sources are used for calibration and validation of the wave forecasts, which achieve satisfactory scores. We also compare results with those of other forecasting systems in the area, highlighting the importance of the wind forcing accuracy and the wave model calibration. Doing so, we discuss the challenges that characterise (semi-) enclosed environments in order to propose effective solutions for them and future developments.