Author:
Xu Mingda,Du Zhanwei,Shan Songwei,Xu Xiaoke,Bai Yuan,Wu Peng,Lau Eric H. Y.,Cowling Benjamin J.
Abstract
We present an R package developed to quantify coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) importation risk. Quantifying and visualizing the importation risk of COVID-19 from inbound travelers is urgent and imperative to trigger public health responses, especially in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic and emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants. We provide a general modeling framework to estimate COVID-19 importation risk using estimated pre-symptomatic prevalence of infection and air traffic data from the multi-origin places. We use Hong Kong as a case study to illustrate how our modeling framework can estimate the COVID-19 importation risk into Hong Kong from cities in Mainland China in real time. This R package can be used as a complementary component of the pandemic surveillance system to monitor spread in the next pandemic.
Subject
Physical and Theoretical Chemistry,General Physics and Astronomy,Mathematical Physics,Materials Science (miscellaneous),Biophysics
Cited by
3 articles.
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