Transition to a zero-carbon energy system in the Ningxia area: integrated CO2 reduction measures from the multi-level perspective

Abstract

China’s commitment to decarbonization has become a foundational principle guiding policymaking at national, provincial, and local levels across diverse sectors. This commitment is especially evident in the active promotion of low-carbon energy transitions by all provinces, aligning with the national goal of carbon neutrality. This paper focuses on Ningxia Province and constructs five scenarios for low-carbon energy transition, adopting the multi-level perspective. These scenarios include the business-as-usual scenario (BAU), high electrification scenario (HES), high outward electricity scenario (HOS), low carbon scenario (LCS), and energy saving scenario (ESS). Utilizing the LEAP-Ningxia model, we simulate energy demand across various sectors until 2060. The quantitative analysis covers primary energy production, secondary energy conversion, final energy consumption, and CO2 emissions. Notably, under scenarios incorporating carbon capture and storage (CCS) and carbon credits, the total CO2 emissions in Ningxia are projected to decrease to 17∼23 Mt CO2 until 2060 under BAU, HES, and HOS. In LCS and ESS, a remarkable achievement is forecasted with 6∼93 Mt CO2 of negative emissions from the energy sector in Ningxia until 2060. The findings underscore the importance of diverse CO2 reduction measures and their impacts on achieving a zero-carbon energy transition in Ningxia. The implications of scenarios with CCS and carbon credits showcase significant reductions in CO2 emissions, aligning with China’s broader decarbonization goals. The results provide valuable scientific support and insights for policymakers and stakeholders involved in steering Ningxia towards a sustainable and low-carbon future.