Study on the Potential Distribution of Leptinotarsa decemlineata and Its Natural Enemy Picromerus bidens Under Climate Change

Abstract

The Colorado potato beetle (CPB), scientifically known as Leptinotarsa decemlineata, is a destructive quarantine pest that has invaded more than 40 countries and regions worldwide. It causes a 20–100% reduction in plant production, leading to severe economic losses. Picromerus bidens L. is a predatory insect that preys on CPB. This study used the MaxEnt model to predict the current and future potential distribution areas of CPB and P. bidens under different climatic scenarios to determine the possibility of using P. bidens as a natural enemy to control CPB. The possible introduction routes of CPB and P. bidens were subsequently predicted by combining their potential distribution with the current distribution of airports and ports. Notably, the potential distribution area of P. bidens was similar to that of CPB, suggesting that P. bidens could be used as a natural enemy to control CPB. Future changes in the suitable growth areas of CPB under different climate scenarios increased and decreased but were insignificant, while those of P. bidens decreased. Consequently, a reduction of the suitable habitats of P. bidens may cause a decrease in its population density, leading to a lack of adequate and timely prevention and control of invasive pests. Active measures should thus be enacted to minimize global warming and protect biodiversity. This study provides a theoretical basis and data support for early warning, monitoring, and control of the CPB spread.