Machine learning predictive models for grading bronchopulmonary dysplasia: umbilical cord blood IL-6 as a biomarker

Abstract

ObjectivesThis study aimed to analyze the predictive value of umbilical cord blood Interleukin-6 (UCB IL-6) for the severity-graded BPD and to establish machine learning (ML) predictive models in a Chinese population based on the 2019 NRN evidence-based guidelines.MethodsIn this retrospective analysis, we included infants born with gestational age <32 weeks, who underwent UCB IL-6 testing within 24 h of admission to our NICU between 2020 and 2022. We collected their medical information encompassing the maternal, perinatal, and early neonatal phases. Furthermore, we classified the grade of BPD according to the 2019 NRN evidence-based guidelines. The correlation between UCB IL-6 and the grades of BPD was analyzed. Univariate analysis and ordinal logistic regression were employed to identify risk factors, followed by the development of ML predictive models based on XGBoost, CatBoost, LightGBM, and Random Forest. The AUROC was used to evaluate the diagnostic value of each model. Besides, we generated feature importance distribution plots based on SHAP values to emphasize the significance of UCB IL-6 in the models.ResultsThe study ultimately enrolled 414 preterm infants, with No BPD group (n = 309), Grade 1 BPD group (n = 73), and Grade 2–3 BPD group (n = 32). The levels of UCB IL-6 increased with the grades of BPD. UCB IL-6 demonstrated clinical significance in predicting various grades of BPD, particularly in distinguishing Grade 2–3 BPD patients, with an AUROC of 0.815 (95% CI: 0.753–0.877). All four ML models, XGBoost, CatBoost, LightGBM, and Random Forest, exhibited Micro-average AUROC values of 0.841, 0.870, 0.851, and 0.878, respectively. Notably, UCB IL-6 consistently appeared as the most prominent feature across the feature importance distribution plots in all four models.ConclusionUCB IL-6 significantly contributes to predicting severity-graded BPD, especially in grade 2–3 BPD. Through the development of four ML predictive models, we highlighted UCB IL-6's importance.