Prognostic factors and models to predict pediatric sepsis mortality: A scoping review

Abstract

IntroductionSeveral scoring systems are available to assess the severity of sepsis in pediatric patients in diverse settings worldwide. This study investigates the quality and applicability of predictive models for determining pediatric sepsis mortality, especially in acute care and limited-resource settings.Data sourcesMortality prediction factors and models were searched in four databases using the following criteria: developed for pediatric health care, especially in acute settings, and with mortality as an outcome.Study selectionTwo or more reviewers performed the study selection to ensure no bias occurred. Any disagreements were solved by consensus or by the decision of a third reviewer.Data extractionThe authors extracted the results and mapped the selected studies qualitatively to describe the prognostic properties of the risk factors and models proposed in the study.Data synthesisThe final analysis included 28 mortality prediction models. Their characteristics, analysis, and performance measures were summarized. Performance was described in terms of calibration and discrimination, including assessing for risk of bias and applicability. A modified version of the PRISM-III score based on physiologic criteria (PRISM-III-APS) increased its predictive value to 0.85–0.95. The vasoactive-inotropic score at 12 h had a strong independent association with death. Albumin had an excellent predictive value when combined with other variables. Lactate, a biomarker widely measured in patients with sepsis, was highly associated with mortality. The bioimpedance phase angle was not considered applicable in our setting. Measurement using more straightforward methods, such as mid-upper arm circumference, was feasible in numerous health care facilities.ConclusionLeveraging prognostic models to predict mortality among pediatric patients with sepsis remains an important and well-recognized area of study. While much validation and development work remains to be done, available prognostic models could aid clinicians at the bedside of children with sepsis. Furthermore, mortality prediction models are essential and valuable tools for assessing the quality of care provided to critically ill pediatric patients.