Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting pulmonary infection in patients receiving immunosuppressive drugs

Abstract

Objective: Pulmonary infection (PI), a severe complication of immunosuppressive therapy, affects patients’ prognosis. As part of this study, we aimed to construct a pulmonary infection prediction (PIP) model and validate it in patients receiving immunosuppressive drugs (ISDs).Methods: Totally, 7,977 patients being treated with ISDs were randomised 7:3 to the developing (n = 5,583) versus validation datasets (n = 2,394). Our predictive nomogram was established using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate COX regression analyses. With the use of the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve, the prediction performance of the final model was evaluated.Results: Among the patients taking immunosuppressive medication, PI was observed in 548 (6.9%). The median time of PI occurrence after immunosuppressive therapy was 123.0 (interquartile range: 63.0, 436.0) days. Thirteen statistically significant independent predictors (sex, age, hypertension, DM, malignant tumour, use of biologics, use of CNIs, use of methylprednisolone at 500 mg, use of methylprednisolone at 40 mg, use of methylprednisolone at 40 mg total dose, use of oral glucocorticoids, albumin level, and haemoglobin level) were screened using the LASSO algorithm and multivariate COX regression analysis. The PIP model built on these features performed reasonably well, with the developing C-index of 0.87 (sensitivity: 85.4%; specificity: 81.0%) and validation C-indices of 0.837, 0.829, 0.832 and 0.830 for predicting 90-, 180-, 270- and 360-day PI probability, respectively. The decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration curves displayed excellent clinical utility and calibration performance of the nomogram.Conclusion: The PIP model presented herein could aid in the prediction of PI risk in individual patients who receive immunosuppressive treatment and help personalise clinical decision-making.