A nomogram incorporating red blood cell indices to predict post-stroke cognitive impairment in the intracerebral hemorrhage population

Abstract

BackgroundPost-stroke cognitive impairment (PSCI) plagues 20–80% of stroke survivors worldwide. There is a lack of an easy and effective scoring tool to predict the risk of PSCI in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) patients. We aimed to develop a risk prediction model incorporating red blood cell (RBC) indices to identify ICH populations at risk of PSCI.MethodsPatients diagnosed with ICH at the stroke center were consecutively enrolled in the study as part of the development cohort from July 2017 to December 2018, and of the validation cohort from July 2019 to February 2020. Univariable and multivariable analyses were applied in the development cohort to screen the patients for PSCI risk factors. Then, a nomogram based on RBC indices and other risk factors was developed and validated to evaluate its performance in predicting PSCI occurrence.ResultsA total of 123 patients were enrolled in the development cohort, of which 69 (56.1%) were identified as PSCI, while 38 (63.3%) of 60 patients in the validation cohort were identified as PSCI. According to the multivariate analysis, seven independent risk factors, including three RBC indices (hemoglobin, mean corpuscular volume, RBC distribution width), as well as age, education level, hematoma volume, and dominant-hemisphere hemorrhage were incorporated into the model. The nomogram incorporating RBC indices displayed good discrimination and calibration. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.940 for the development cohort and 0.914 for the validation cohort. Decision curve analysis and clinical impact curve showed that the nomogram was clinically useful.ConclusionRBC indices are independent and important predictors of PSCI. A nomogram incorporating RBC indices can be used as a reasonable and reliable graphic tool to help clinicians identify high cognition impairment-risk patients and adjust individualized therapy.