Uncovering the heterogeneity of a solar flare mechanism with mixture models

Abstract

The physics of solar flares occurring on the Sun is highly complex and far from fully understood. However, observations show that solar eruptions are associated with the intense kilogauss fields of active regions, where free energies are stored with field-aligned electric currents. With the advent of high-quality data sources such as the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), recent works on solar flare forecasting have been focusing on data-driven methods. In particular, black box machine learning and deep learning models are increasingly being adopted in which underlying data structures are not modeled explicitly. If the active regions indeed follow the same laws of physics, similar patterns should be shared among them, reflected by the observations. Yet, these black box models currently used in the literature do not explicitly characterize the heterogeneous nature of the solar flare data within and between active regions. In this paper, we propose two finite mixture models designed to capture the heterogeneous patterns of active regions and their associated solar flare events. With extensive numerical studies, we demonstrate the usefulness of our proposed method for both resolving the sample imbalance issue and modeling the heterogeneity for rare energetic solar flare events.