To PCR or not? The impact of shifting policy from PCR to rapid antigen tests to diagnose COVID-19 during the omicron epidemic: a nationwide surveillance study

Abstract

BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) had caused huge impacts worldwide. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is the mainstay diagnostic modality. In most hospitals in Taiwan, samples for PCR are collected at emergency department (ER) or outdoor clinics to avoid virus spread inside hospitals. Home rapid antigen test (RAT) is a feasible, low-cost, and convenient tool with moderate sensitivity and high specificity, which can be performed at home to reduce hospital visits. Due to comparably low severity of omicron variant and high vaccine coverage (~80% residents fully vaccinated with AstraZeneca, Moderna, or Pfizer BioNTech COVID-19 vaccines as of March 2022), the policy was shifted from containment to co-existing with COVID-19 in Taiwan. Virus spread rapidly in the community after the ease of social restrictive measurements. To acquire a confirmed diagnosis, PCR testing was requested for people with suspected COVID-19 infection. As a consequence, people with respiratory symptoms or contact history surged into hospitals for PCR testing, thus, the medical capacity was challenged. The diagnostic policy was altered from PCR to RAT, but the impact of diagnostic policy change remains unclear.ObjectivesWe conducted this study to investigate the number of COVID-19 cases, PCR testing, hospitalizations, mortalities, and hospital visits during the epidemic and evaluate the impact of diagnostic policy change on hospital visits.MethodsThe diagnostic policy change was implemented in late May 2022. We used nationwide and hospital-based data of COVID-19 cases, PCR testing, hospitalizations, mortalities, and hospital visits before and after policy change as of 31 Jul 2022.ResultsDuring the omicron epidemic, significant and synchronous increase of COVID-19 patients, PCR testing, hospital visits were observed. COVID-19 cases increased exponentially since April 2022 and the COVID-19 patients peaked in June (1,943, 55,571, and 61,511 average daily new cases in April, May, and June, respectively). The PCR testing peaked in May (85,788 daily tests) with high positive rate (81%). The policy of RAT as confirmatory diagnosis was implemented on 26 May 2022 and a substantial decline of PCR testing numbers occurred (85,788 and 83,113 daily tests in May and June). People hospitalized for COVID-19 peaked in June (821.8 patients per day) and decreased in July (549.5 patients). The mortality cases also peaked in June (147 cases/day). This trend was also validated by the hospital-based data with a significant decrease of emergency department visits (11,397 visits in May while 8,126 visits in June) and PCR testing (21,314 in May and 6,158 in June). The proportion of people purely for PCR testing also decreased (10–26 vs. 5–14%, before and after policy change, respectively).ConclusionsThe impact of diagnostic policy change was a complicated issue and our study demonstrated the huge impact of diagnostic policy on health seeking behavior. The PCR testing numbers and emergency department visits had substantial decrease after diagnostic policy change, and the plateau of epidemic peak eased gradually in ~1 month later. Widespread RAT application may contribute to the decreased hospital visits and preserve medical capacity. Our study provides some evidences for policy maker's reference.