Does the population size of a city matter to its older adults’ self-rated health? Results of China data analysis

Abstract

Clarifying the association between city population size and older adults’ health is vital in understanding the health disparity across different cities in China. Using a nationally representative dataset, this study employed Multilevel Mixed-effects Probit regression models and Sorting Analysis to elucidate this association, taking into account the sorting decisions made by older adults. The main results of the study include: (1) The association between city population size and the self-rated health of older adults shifts from a positive linear to an inverted U-shaped relationship once individual socioeconomic status is controlled for; the socioeconomic development of cities, intertwined with the growth of their populations, plays a pivotal role in yielding health benefits. (2) There is a sorting effect in older adults’ residential decisions; compared to cities with over 5 million residents, unobserved factors result in smaller cities hosting more less-healthy older adults, which may cause overestimation of health benefits in cities with greater population size. (3) The evolving socioeconomic and human-made environment resulting from urban population growth introduces health risks for migratory older adults but yields benefits for those with local resident status who are male, aged over 70, and have lower living standards and socioeconomic status. And (4) The sorting effects are more pronounced among older adults with greater resources supporting their mobility or those without permanent local resident status. Thus, policymakers should adapt planning and development strategies to consider the intricate relationship between city population size and the health of older adults.