The machine learning model based on trajectory analysis of ribonucleic acid test results predicts the necessity of quarantine in recurrently positive patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection

Abstract

BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 patients re-experiencing positive nucleic acid test results after recovery is a concerning phenomenon. Current pandemic prevention strategy demands the quarantine of all recurrently positive patients. This study provided evidence on whether quarantine is required in those patients, and predictive algorithms to detect subjects with infectious possibility.MethodsThis observational study recruited recurrently positive patients who were admitted to our shelter hospital between May 12 and June 10, 2022. The demographic and epidemiologic data was collected, and nucleic acid tests were performed daily. virus isolation was done in randomly selected cases. The group-based trajectory model was developed based on the cycle threshold (Ct) value variations. Machine learning models were validated for prediction accuracy.ResultsAmong the 494 subjects, 72.04% were asymptomatic, and 23.08% had a Ct value under 30 at recurrence. Two trajectories were identified with either rapid (92.24%) or delayed (7.76%) recovery of Ct values. The latter had significantly higher incidence of comorbidities; lower Ct value at recurrence; more persistent cough; and more frequently reported close contacts infection compared with those recovered rapidly. However, negative virus isolation was reported in all selected samples. Our predictive model can efficiently discriminate those with delayed Ct value recovery and infectious potentials.ConclusionQuarantine seems to be unnecessary for the majority of re-positive patients who may have low transmission risks. Our predictive algorithm can screen out the suspiciously infectious individuals for quarantine. These findings may assist the enaction of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic prevention strategies regarding recurrently positive patients in the future.