Was China's zero-COVID policy the right choice? The multiple factor analysis of variables that affected the course of COVID-19 pandemic in China

Abstract

BackgroundAfter 3 years of the COVID-19 pandemic and zero-COVID policy, a rapid increase in the number of daily COVID-19 infections was observed in China from November to December 2022. Therefore, we decided to analyze the factors that have been related to the COVID-19 pandemic in China.MethodsThe multiple factor analysis was conducted, using the data from publicly available databases from the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic to 30 January 2023.ResultsOur study showed that each year of the pandemic in China had different profiles and can be described by different variables: year 2020 was characterized by restrictions, such as international travel controls, stay at home requirements, and health system policies including contact tracing and protection of older adults; year 2021 was characterized by Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Delta variants; 2022 was characterized by new cases per million, Omicron lineages, and a few restrictions-related variables; and year 2023 was mainly described by the number of new deaths per million and Omicron variant 22B (BA.5) but also by testing and vaccination policies, as well as the number of people fully vaccinated per 100 and total boosters per 100.ConclusionThe COVID-19 pandemic has changed over time. Therefore, the anti-pandemic policies implemented must be dynamic and adapted to the current situation.