Heterogeneous responses of wetland vegetation to climate change in the Amur River basin characterized by normalized difference vegetation index from 1982 to 2020

Abstract

Climate change affects wetland vegetation dramatically in mid- and high- latitudes, especially in the Amur River basin (ARB), straddling three countries and distributing abundance wetlands. In this study, spatiotemporal changes in average normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of wetland during the annual growing season were examined in the ARB from 1982 to 2020, and the responses of wetland vegetation to climatic change (temperature and precipitation) in different countries, geographic gradients, and time periods were analyzed by correlation analysis. The NDVI of wetland in the ARB increased significantly (p < 0.01) at the rate of 0.023 per decade from 1982 to 2020, and the NDVI on the Russian side (0.03 per decade) increased faster than that on the Chinese side (0.02 per decade). The NDVI of wetland was significantly positively correlated with daily mean temperature (p < 0.05, r = 0.701) and negatively correlated with precipitation, although the correlation was not significant (p > 0.05, r = −0.12). However, the asymmetric effects of diurnal warming on wetland vegetation were weak in the ARB. Correlations between the NDVI of wetland and climatic factors were zonal in latitudinal and longitudinal directions, and 49°N and 130°E were the points for a shift between increasing and decreasing correlation coefficients, closely related to the climatic zone. Under climate warming scenarios, the NDVI of wetland is predicted to continue to increase until 2080. The findings of this study are expected to deepen the understanding on response of wetland ecosystem to global change and promote regional wetland ecological protection.