A Nomogram That Includes Neutrophils and High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Can Predict the Prognosis of Acute Ischaemic Stroke

Abstract

Lipids are implicated in inflammatory responses affecting acute ischaemic stroke prognosis. Therefore, we aimed to develop a predictive model that considers neutrophils and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol to predict its prognosis. This prospective study enrolled patients with acute ischaemic stroke within 24 h of onset between January 2015 and December 2017. The main outcome was a modified Rankin Scale score ≥3 at the 90th day of follow-up. Patients were divided into training and testing sets. The training set was divided into four states according to the median of neutrophils and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels in all patients. Through binary logistic regression analysis, the relationship between factors and prognosis was determined. A nomogram based on the results was developed; its predictive value was evaluated through internal and external validations. Altogether, 1,090 patients were enrolled with 872 (80%) and 218 (20%) in the training and testing sets, respectively. In the training set, the major outcomes occurred in 24 (10.4%), 24 (11.6%), 37 (17.2%), and 49 (22.3%) in states 1–4, respectively (P = 0.002). Validation of calibration and decision curve analyses showed that the nomogram showed better performance. The internal and external testing set receiver operating characteristics verified the predictive value [area under the curve = 0.794 (0.753–0.834), P < 0.001, and area under the curve = 0.973 (0.954–0.992), P < 0.001, respectively]. A nomogram that includes neutrophils and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol can predict the prognosis of acute ischaemic stroke, thus providing us with an effective visualization tool.