Predictive nomogram model for major adverse kidney events within 30 days in sepsis patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

Abstract

BackgroundIn sepsis patients, Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) was associated with an increased risk of kidney injury. Furthermore, kidney damage is among the dangerous complications, with a high mortality rate in sepsis patients. However, the underlying predictive model on the prediction of major adverse kidney events within 30 days (MAKE30) in sepsis patients with T2DM has not been reported by any study.MethodsA total of 406 sepsis patients with T2DM were retrospectively enrolled and divided into a non-MAKE30 group (261 cases) and a MAKE30 group (145 cases). In sepsis patients with T2DM, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify independent predictors of MAKE30. Based on the findings of multivariate logistic regression analysis, the corresponding nomogram was constructed. The nomogram was evaluated using the calibration curve, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analysis. A composite of death, new Renal Replacement Therapy (RRT), or Persistent Renal Dysfunction (PRD) comprised MAKE30. Finally, subgroup analyses of the nomogram for 30-day mortality, new RRT, and PRD were performed.ResultsIn sepsis patients with T2DM, Mean Arterial Pressure (MAP), Platelet (PLT), cystatin C, High-Density Lipoprotein (HDL), and apolipoprotein E (apoE) were independent predictors for MAKE30. According to the ROC curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis, the nomogram model based on those predictors had satisfactory discrimination (AUC = 0.916), good calibration, and clinical application. Additionally, in sepsis patients with T2DM, the nomogram model exhibited a high ability to predict the occurrence of 30-day mortality (AUC = 0.822), new RRT (AUC = 0.874), and PRD (AUC = 0.801).ConclusionThe nomogram model, which is available within 24 hours after admission, had a robust and accurate assessment for the MAKE30 occurrence, and it provided information to better manage sepsis patients with T2DM.