A Novel Nomogram for Individualized Gonadotropin Starting Dose in GnRH Antagonist Protocol

Abstract

Controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) is one of the most vital parts of in vitro fertilization-embryo transfer (IVF-ET). At present, no matter what kinds of COS protocols are used, clinicians have to face the challenge of selection of gonadotropin starting dose. Although several nomograms have been developed to calculate the appropriate gonadotropin starting dose in gonadotropin releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist protocol, no nomogram was suitable for GnRH antagonist protocol. This study aimed to develop a predictive nomogram for individualized gonadotropin starting dose in GnRH antagonist protocol. Single-center prospective cohort study was conducted, with 198 women aged 20-45 years underwent IVF/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI)-ET cycles. Blood samples were collected on the second day of the menstrual cycle. All women received ovarian stimulation using GnRH antagonist protocol. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify predictive factors of ovarian sensitivity (OS). A nomogram for gonadotropin starting dose was developed based on the multivariate regression model. Validation was performed using concordance statistics and bootstrap resampling. A multivariate regression model based on serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) level, antral follicle count (AFC), and body mass index (BMI) was developed and accounted for 59% of the variability of OS. An easy-to-use predictive nomogram for gonadotropin starting dose was established with excellent accuracy. The concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram was 0.833 (95% CI, 0.829-0.837). Internal validation using bootstrap resampling further showed the good performance of the nomogram. In conclusion, gonadotropin starting dose in antagonist protocol can be predicted precisely by a novel nomogram.