Using Machine Learning to Evaluate the Role of Microinflammation in Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease

Abstract

BackgroundLipid metabolism disorder, as one major complication in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), is tied to an increased risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Traditional lipid-lowering statins have been found to have limited benefit for the final CVD outcome of CKD patients. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of microinflammation on CVD in statin-treated CKD patients.MethodsWe retrospectively analysed statin-treated CKD patients from January 2013 to September 2020. Machine learning algorithms were employed to develop models of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) levels and CVD indices. A fivefold cross-validation method was employed against the problem of overfitting. The accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) were acquired for evaluation. The Gini impurity index of the predictors for the random forest (RF) model was ranked to perform an analysis of importance.ResultsThe RF algorithm performed best for both the LDL and CVD models, with accuracies of 82.27% and 74.15%, respectively, and is therefore the most suitable method for clinical data processing. The Gini impurity ranking of the LDL model revealed that hypersensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) was highly relevant, whereas statin use and sex had the least important effects on the outcomes of both the LDL and CVD models. hs-CRP was the strongest predictor of CVD events.ConclusionMicroinflammation is closely associated with potential CVD events in CKD patients, suggesting that therapeutic strategies against microinflammation should be implemented to prevent CVD events in CKD patients treated by statin.