Development and validation of a prognostic model to predict the prognosis of patients with colorectal gastrointestinal stromal tumor: A large international population-based cohort study

Abstract

BackgroundColorectal gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs), mesenchymal malignancy, only accounts for about 6% of GISTs, but prognosis is generally poor. Given the rarity of colorectal GISTs, the prognostic values of clinicopathological features in the patients remain unclear. Nomograms can provide a visual interface to help calculate the predicted probability of a patient meeting a specific clinical endpoint and communicate it to the patient.MethodsWe included a total of 448 patients with colorectal GISTs diagnosed between 2000 and 2019 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. For nomogram construction and validation, patients in the SEER database were divided randomly into the training cohort and internal validation cohort at a ratio of 7:3, while 44 patients with colorectal GISTs from our hospital patient data set between 2010 to 2016 served as the external validation cohort. The OS curves were drawn using the Kaplan–Meier method and assessed using the log-rank test. And, Fine and Gray’s competing-risks regression models were conducted to assess CSS. We performed univariate and multivariate analyses to select prognostic factors for survival time and constructed a predictive nomogram based on the results of the multivariate analysis.ResultsThrough univariate and multivariate analyses, it is found that age, primary site, SEER stage, surgery, and tumor size constitute significant risk factors for OS, and age, primary site, histological grade, SEER stage, American Joint Committee for Cancer (AJCC) stage, surgery, and tumor size constitute risk factors for CSS. We found that the nomogram provided a good assessment of OS and CSS at 1-, 3- and 5- year in patients with colorectal GISTs. The calibration plots for the training, internal validation and external validation cohorts at 1-, 3- and 5- year OS and CSS indicated that the predicted survival rates closely correspond to the actual survival rates.ConclusionWe constructed and validated an unprecedented nomogram to predict OS and CSS in patients with colorectal GISTs. The nomogram had the potential as a clinically predictive tool for colorectal GISTs prognosis, and can be used as a potential, objective and additional tool for clinicians in predicting the prognosis of colorectal GISTs patients worldwide. Clinicians could wield the nomogram to accurately evaluate patients’ OS and CSS, identify high-risk patients, and provide a baseline to optimize treatment plans.