Study on the coupling role and forecasting of energy-economy-environment triple system based on system dynamics approach, taking Inner Mongolia autonomous region as an example

Abstract

The sustainable development of Inner Mongolia, particularly the coordinated development of energy, economy, and environment, plays a crucial role in shaping energy strategies and environmental protection policies for both Inner Mongolia and China. Based on this, the study focuses on the energy-economy-environment coupling in Inner Mongolia, employing system dynamics for multi-scenario simulations. The findings reveal: (1) the overall coupling coordination degree is improving, with the energy-environment friendly scenario yielding the best results; (2) industrial pollution and energy consumption are significant factors influencing coupling coordination; (3) addressing energy consumption and achieving carbon neutrality are long-term challenges for Inner Mongolia’s sustainable development. Therefore, Inner Mongolia should optimize its industrial structure, promote high-tech and low-carbon industries, improve energy efficiency, develop renewable energy, and strengthen pollution control and carbon emission management to achieve sustainable development across its economy, energy, and environment.