Nomograms predicting recurrence in patients with triple negative breast cancer based on ultrasound and clinicopathological features

Abstract

Objectives: The clinicopathological and ultrasound features associated with recurrence in patients with triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) were used to develop a nomogram to predict the prognosis of TNBC. Methods: Clinicopathological data of 300 patients with TNBC treated between July 2012 and September 2014 were retrospectively reviewed. The endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS). Prognostic factors were screened by multivariate COX regression to develop nomograms. The C-index and calibration curves were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy and discriminatory ability of nomograms. Results: Of 300 patients with TNBC followed-up for 5 years, 80 (26.7%) had PFS events. Five informative prognostic factors (large size, vertical orientation, posterior acoustic enhancement, lymph node involvement, and high pathological stage) were screened and used to construct a nomogram for PFS. The C-index of the PFS nomogram was 0.88 (p < 0.01, 95% confidence interval, 0.85–0.90), indicating good predictive accuracy. Conclusions: We developed and validated a nomogram for predicting PFS in TNBC. Vertical orientation and posterior acoustic enhancement in ultrasound images of TNBC were associated with worse outcomes. Advances in knowledge: Patients with TNBC have a very poor prognosis and patients have a high risk of recurrence, and our study developed a nomogram based on ultrasound and clinicopathological features for TNBC patients to improve the accuracy of individualized prediction of recurrence and provide help for clinical treatment.