Dynamic Nomogram for Predicting Long-Term Survival in Terms of Preoperative and Postoperative Radiotherapy Benefits for Advanced Gastric Cancer

Abstract

Studies on the prognostic significance of preoperative radiotherapy (PERT) and postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) in patients with advanced gastric cancer (GC) remain elusive. The aim of the study was to evaluate the survival advantage of preoperative and postoperative radiotherapy and construct a dynamic nomogram model to provide customized prediction of the probability of prognostic events for advanced GC patients. We collected clinical records from 2010 to 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database with a specific target for stage II-IV GC patients treated with PERT or PORT. We used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model to identify factors that contribute to the overall survival (OS) of GC patients. The dynamic nomogram infographic was constructed based on the prognostic factors of tumor-specific survival. Out of the 3215 total patients (2271 [70.6%] male; median age, 61 [SD = 12] years), 1204 were in the PERT group and 2011 in the PORT group. Receiving PORT was associated with a survival advantage over PERT for stage II GC patients (HR = 0.791, 95% CI= 0.712–0.879, p < 0.001). The 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS rates were 89.9%, 63.8%, and 53.8% in the PORT group, whereas the corresponding rates were significantly lower in the PERT group (86.4%, 57.1%, and 44.3%, respectively, all p < 0.05). The survival prediction model demonstrated that patients aged > 65 years, with an advanced cancer development stage and tumor size >3 were independent risk factors for poor prognosis (all HR > 1, p < 0.05). In this study, a dynamic nomogram was established based on the LASSO model to provide a statistical basis for the clinical characteristics and predictive factors of advanced GC in a large population. PORT demonstrated significantly better treatment advantages than PERT for stage II GC patients.