Physical Modeling and Intelligent Prediction for Instability of High Backfill Slope Moisturized under the Influence of Rainfall Disasters

Abstract

The stability of high backfill slopes emerges in practice due to the expansion of transportation infrastructures. The seepage and infiltration of rainfall into the backfills brings challenges to engineers in predicting the stability of the slope, weakening the shear strength and modulus of the soil. This study carried out a series of model tests under a plane strain condition to investigate the stability of a high backfill slope moisturized by rainfalls, considering the influences of rainfall duration and intensity. The slope displacements were monitored by a laser displacement sensor and the moisture content in the backfill mass were obtained by a soil moisture sensor. The test results show that increasing the rainfall intensity and duration caused the slope near the surface to be saturated, resulting in significant influences on the lateral displacement of the slope and the reduction of stability as well as the sizes of the sliding mass. Based on the model tests, the numerical analysis was adopted to extend the analysis cases, and the backpropagation (BP) neural network model was further adopted to build a model for predicting the stability of a high backfill slope under rainfall. The trained BP model shows the average relative error of 1.02% and the goodness of fitness of 0.999, indicating a good prediction effect.