The Evolution, Genomic Epidemiology, and Transmission Dynamics of Tembusu Virus

Abstract

Tembusu virus (TMUV) can induce severe egg drop syndrome in ducks, causing significant economic losses. In this study, the possible origin, genomic epidemiology, and transmission dynamics of TMUV were determined. The time to the most recent common ancestor of TMUV was found to be 1924, earlier than that previously reported. The effective population size of TMUV increased rapidly from 2010 to 2013 and was associated with the diversification of different TMUV clusters. TMUV was classified into three clusters (clusters 1, 2, and 3) based on the envelope (E) protein. Subcluster 2.2, within cluster 2, is the most prevalent, and the occurrence of these mutations is accompanied by changes in the virulence and infectivity of the virus. Two positive selections on codons located in the NS3 and NS5 genes (591 of NS3 and 883 of NS5) were identified, which might have caused changes in the ability of the virus to replicate. Based on phylogeographic analysis, Malaysia was the most likely country of origin for TMUV, while Shandong Province was the earliest province of origin in China. This study has important implications for understanding TMUV and provides suggestions for its prevention and control.