Assessment of Rooftop Photovoltaic Potential Considering Building Functions

Abstract

Urban expansion and fossil fuel dependence have led to energy and environmental concerns, highlighting the need for sustainable solutions. Rooftop photovoltaic (RPV) systems offer a viable solution for urban energy transition by utilizing idle rooftop space and meeting decentralized energy needs. However, due to limited information on building function attributes, detailed assessments of RPV potential at the city scale are still complicated. This study introduces a cost-effective framework that combines big Earth data and deep learning to evaluate RPV potential for various investment entities. We introduced a sample construction strategy that considers built environment and location awareness to improve the effectiveness and generalizability of the framework. Applied to Shanghai, our building function recognition model achieved 88.67%, 88.51%, and 67.18% for accuracy, weighted-F1, and kappa, respectively. We identified a potential installed capacity of 42 GW with annual electricity generation of 17 TWh for industrial and commercial, 16 TWh for residential, and 10 TWh for public RPVs. The levelized cost of electricity ranges from 0.32 to 0.41 CNY/kWh, demonstrating that both user-side and plant-side grid parity was achieved. This study supports sustainable development by providing detailed urban energy assessments and guiding local energy planning. The methods and findings may offer insights for similar studies globally.