Assessing the Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on Consumer Mobility Patterns and COVID-19 Transmission in the US

Abstract

The initial outbreak of COVID-19 during late December 2019 and the subsequent global pandemic markedly changed consumer mobility patterns worldwide, largely in response to government-ordered non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In this study, we investigate these changes as they relate to the initial spread of COVID-19 within two states—Massachusetts and Michigan. Specifically, we use linear and generalized linear mixed-effects models to quantify the relationship between four NPIs and individuals’ point-of-sale (POS) credit card transactions, as well as the relationship between subsequent changes in POS transactions and county-level COVID-19 case growth rates. Our analysis reveals a significant negative association between NPIs and daily POS transactions, particularly a dose–response relationship, in which stringent workplace closures, stay-at-home requirements, and gathering restrictions were all associated with decreased POS transactions. We also uncover a significant positive association between 12-day lagged changes in POS transactions compared to pre-pandemic baselines and county-level COVID-19 case growth rates. Overall, our study supports previous findings that early NPIs reduced human mobility and COVID-19 transmission in the US, providing policymakers with quantitative evidence concerning the effectiveness of NPIs.