Affiliation:
1. Clinic of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, University Clinical Center of Serbia, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
2. Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
3. Department of Gastroenterology, Clinical and Hospital Center “Dr Dragisa Misovic-Dedinje”, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
4. Clinic for Gastroenterohepatology, University Clinical Center Nis, 18000 Nis, Serbia
Abstract
Background: Liver cirrhosis is the final stage of chronic liver disease. We aimed to evaluate non-invasive scores as predictors of complications and outcome in cirrhotic patients. Methods: A total of 150 cirrhotic patients were included. Models for end-stage liver disease (MELD), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), monocyte-lymphocyte ratio (MoLR), and neutrophil-lymphocyte-albumin ratio (NLA) scores were tested in relation to the development of complications and mortality using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results: The ROC curve analysis showed (area under the curve) AUC values of NLR, NLA, ALBI, and MELD of 0.711, 0.730, 0.627, and 0.684, respectively, for short-term mortality. MELD, ALBI, and NLA scores showed a statistically significant correlation with hepatic encephalopathy (p = 0.000 vs. 0.014 vs. 0.040, respectively), and the MELD cut-off value of 16 had a sensitivity of 70% and a specificity of 52% (AUC: 0.671, 95% CI (0.577–0.765)). For the assessment of the presence of ascites, the AUC values for NLA and MoLR were 0.583 and 0.658, respectively, with cut-offs of 11.38 and 0.44. Conclusions: MELD, ALBI, and NLA are reliable predictors of hepatic encephalopathy. NLA and MoLR showed a significant correlation with the presence of ascites, and MELD, ALBI, NLR, and NLA have prognostic value to predict 30-day mortality in cirrhotic patients.