Selection of Potential Regions for the Creation of Intelligent Transportation Systems Based on the Machine Learning Algorithm Random Forest

Abstract

The planning and management of traffic flow networks with multiple input data sources for decision-making generate the need for a mathematical approach. The program of measures for the development of the transport infrastructure of the Russian Federation provides for the selection of pilot regions for the creation of intelligent transportation systems. With extensive knowledge of theoretical and applied mathematics, it is important to select and adapt mathematical methods for solving problems. In this regard, the aim of the study is to develop and validate an algorithm for solving the problem of classifying objects according to the potential of creating intelligent transportation systems. The main mathematical apparatus for classification is the «random forest» machine learning algorithm method. A bagging machine learning meta-algorithm for high accuracy of the algorithm was used. This paper proposes the author’s method of sequential classification analysis for identifying objects with the potential to create intelligent transportation systems. The choice of using this method is justified by its best behavior under the large number of predictor variables required for an objective aggregate assessment of digital development and quality of territories. The proposed algorithm on the example of Russian regions was tested. A technique and algorithm for statistical data processing based on descriptive analytics tools have been developed. The quality of the classification analysis algorithm was assessed by the random forest method based on misclassification coefficients. The admissibility of retrained algorithms and formation of a «fine-grained» «random forest» model for solving classification problems under the condition of no prediction was proven to be successful. The most productive models with the highest probability of correct classification were «reached» and «finalized» on the basis of logistic regression analysis of relationships between predictors and categorical dependent variables. The regions of class 1 with «high potential for the creation of intelligent transportation systems» are most likely to be ready for the reorganization of infrastructure facilities; the introduction of digital technologies in the management of traffic flows was found.