Spatiotemporal Dynamics Effects of Green Space and Socioeconomic Factors on Urban Agglomeration in Central Yunnan

Abstract

In the current context of urbanization, urban agglomerations face complex challenges in maintaining an ecological balance. This study uses remote sensing images of the Central Yunnan urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2020, along with socioeconomic data, to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of the green space evolution. Utilizing dynamic geographically weighted regression analysis based on principal components (PCA-GWR), we identify the key socioeconomic factors influencing these changes and quantitatively analyze the driving forces in each stage. Our findings reveal a continuing trend of decreasing total green space alongside increasing individual forest types and pronounced regional disparities in green space dynamics. The results indicate that socioeconomic factors exert both positive facilitative effects and negative pressures, with evident spatial and temporal variability. Urbanization and economic development promote forest expansion in certain areas, while contributing to the reduction in farmland and shrub–grass lands. Significant variations are influenced by factors such as the urbanization rate, the agricultural population, the industrial composition, and fiscal revenue. This study enhances the in-depth understanding of the relationship between the spatiotemporal dynamics of green spaces and socially driven mechanisms, offering significant insights for sustainable urban planning and landscape management and harmonizing urban agglomeration development.