Operational Robustness Assessment of the Hydro-Based Hybrid Generation System under Deep Uncertainties

Abstract

The renewable-dominant hybrid generation systems (HGSs) are increasingly important to the electric power system worldwide. However, influenced by uncertain meteorological factors, the operational robustness of HGSs must be evaluated to inform the associated decision-making. Additionally, the main factors affecting the HGS’s robustness should be urgently identified under deep uncertainties, as this provides valuable guidance for HGS capacity configuration. In this paper, a multivariate stochastic simulation method is developed and used to generate uncertain resource scenarios of runoff, photovoltaic power, and wind power. Subsequently, a long-term stochastic optimization model of the HGS is employed to derive the optimal operating rules. Finally, these operating rules are used to simulate the long-term operation of an HGS, and the results are used to evaluate the HGS’s robustness and identify its main sensitivities. A clean energy base located in the Upper Yellow River Basin, China, is selected as a case study. The results show that the HGS achieves greater operational robustness than an individual hydropower system, and the robustness becomes weaker as the total capacity of photovoltaic and wind power increases. Additionally, the operational robustness of the HGS is found to be more sensitive to the total capacity than to the capacity ratio between photovoltaic and wind power.