Affiliation:
1. Division of Pulmonary, Allergy, and Critical Care Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Pusan National University Hospital, Busan 49241, Republic of Korea
2. Biomedical Research Institute, Pusan National University Hospital, Busan 49241, Republic of Korea
3. Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Pusan National University, Busan 49241, Republic of Korea
Abstract
Background and Objectives: This study aimed to assess the value of a novel prognostic model, based on clinical variables, comorbidities, and demographic characteristics, to predict long-term prognosis in patients who received mechanical ventilation (MV) for over 14 days and who underwent a tracheostomy during the first 14 days of MV. Materials and Methods: Data were obtained from 278 patients (66.2% male; median age: 71 years) who underwent a tracheostomy within the first 14 days of MV from February 2011 to February 2021. Factors predicting 1-year mortality after the initiation of MV were identified by binary logistic regression analysis. The resulting prognostic model, known as the tracheostomy-ProVent score, was computed by assigning points to variables based on their respective ß-coefficients. Results: The overall 1-year mortality rate was 64.7%. Six factors were identified as prognostic indicators: platelet count < 150 × 103/μL, PaO2/FiO2 < 200 mmHg, body mass index (BMI) < 23.0 kg/m2, albumin concentration < 2.8 g/dL on day 14 of MV, chronic cardiovascular diseases, and immunocompromised status at admission. The tracheostomy-ProVent score exhibited acceptable discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.786 (95% confidence interval: 0.733–0.833, p < 0.001) and acceptable calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow chi-square: 2.753, df: 8, p = 0.949). Based on the maximum Youden index, the cut-off value for predicting mortality was set at ≥2, with a sensitivity of 67.4% and a specificity of 76.3%. Conclusions: The tracheostomy-ProVent score is a good predictive tool for estimating 1-year mortality in tracheostomized patients undergoing MV for >14 days. This comprehensive model integrates clinical variables and comorbidities, enhancing the precision of long-term prognosis in these patients.
Funder
Pusan National University