Development and Validation of a Novel Risk Score for All-Cause Mortality Risk Stratification Prior to Permanent Pacemaker Implantation in Octogenarians or Older

Abstract

Background and Objectives: The demand for permanent pacemaker (PPM) implantation for extremely old patients is increasing. Prior to implanting PPMs, life expectancy evaluation is essential but difficult. We aimed to develop and validate a scoring system for all-cause mortality risk stratification prior to PPM implantation in patients aged ≥80. Materials and Methods: A total of 210 patients aged ≥80 who received PPM implantation were included. Multivariable analysis was performed to assess the effects of different variables on all-cause mortality in a derivation cohort (n = 100). We developed the MELODY score for stratifying all-cause mortality prior to PPM implantation and tested the scoring system in a validation cohort (n = 102). Results: After 4.0 ± 2.7 years of follow-up, 54 patients (54%) had died. The 0.5-, 1- and 2-year all-cause mortality rates were 7%, 10% and 24%, respectively. The MELODY score based on body mass index <21 kg/m2 (HR: 2.21, 95% CI: 1.06–4.61), estimated glomerular filtration rate <30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (3.35, 1.77–6.35), length of hospitalization before PPM implantation >7 days (1.87, 1.02–3.43) and dyspnea as the major presenting symptom (1.90, 1.03–3.50) successfully distinguished patients at high risk of mortality. Patients with MELODY scores ≥3 had a higher risk of mortality compared to those with MELODY scores <3 (8.49, 4.24–17.00). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves in predicting 0.5, 1 and 2 years mortality rates were 0.86, 0.81 and 0.74, respectively. The predictive value of the model was confirmed in a validation cohort. Conclusions: The novel scoring system is a simple and effective tool for all-cause mortality risk stratification prior to PPM implantation in patients aged ≥80.