Proposed Framework for Comparison of Continuous Probabilistic Genotyping Systems amongst Different Laboratories

Abstract

Continuous probabilistic genotyping (PG) systems are becoming the default method for calculating likelihood ratios (LRs) for competing propositions about DNA mixtures. Calculation of the LR relies on numerical methods and simultaneous probabilistic simulations of multiple variables rather than on analytical solutions alone. Some also require modelling of individual laboratory processes that give rise to electropherogram artefacts and peak height variance. For these reasons, it has been argued that any LR produced by continuous PG is unique and cannot be compared with another. We challenge this assumption and demonstrate that there are a set of conditions defining specific DNA mixtures which can produce an aspirational LR and thereby provide a measure of reproducibility for DNA profiling systems incorporating PG. Such DNA mixtures could serve as the basis for inter-laboratory comparisons, even when different STR amplification kits are employed. We propose a procedure for an inter-laboratory comparison consistent with these conditions.