Analysis of Spatiotemporal Transmission Characteristics of African Swine Fever (ASF) in Mainland China

Abstract

In view of the rapid spread of African swine fever in Mainland China from 2018 to 2019, we used spatiotemporal statistical analysis methods to study the spatiotemporal transmission features of African swine fever. The results reveal that the hot spots of African swine fever were concentrated in some cities in Northeast and Southwest China. Seven spatiotemporal clusters of African swine fever were identified, and the most likely spatiotemporal cluster was located in the Buyi and Miao Autonomous Prefecture of QianNan in Guizhou Province, and the cluster date was from 19 June to 25 June 2019. The first secondary cluster covered five cities (Shenyang, Yingkou, Panjin, Anshan, and Liaoyang) in Liaoning Province from 1 August to 10 October 2018. In addition, from the global and local transmission direction and speed of African swine fever in Mainland China, the spatial transmission speed of ASF was found to be slow from August to October 2018, and fast from February to March 2019. Lastly, the global and local isolation and exposure of sites infected with ASF were calculated in Mainland China to reveal the infection risk of different susceptible sites and time periods.