Two-Stage Hybrid Model for Efficiency Prediction of Centrifugal Pump

Abstract

Accurately predict the efficiency of centrifugal pumps at different rotational speeds is important but still intractable in practice. To enhance the prediction performance, this work proposes a hybrid modeling method by combining both the process data and knowledge of centrifugal pumps. First, according to the process knowledge of centrifugal pumps, the efficiency curve is divided into two stages. Then, the affinity law of pumps and a Gaussian process regression (GPR) model are explored and utilized to predict the efficiency at their suitable flow stages, respectively. Furthermore, a probability index is established through the prediction variance of a GPR model and Bayesian inference to select a suitable training set to improve the prediction accuracy. Experimental results show the superiority of the hybrid modeling method, compared with only using mechanism or data-driven models.