Machine Learning Approach for Prediction of the Test Results of Gonadotropin-Releasing Hormone Stimulation: Model Building and Implementation

Abstract

Precocious puberty in girls is defined as the onset of pubertal changes before 8 years of age, and gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist treatment is available for central precocious puberty (CPP). The gold standard for diagnosing CPP is the GnRH stimulation test. However, the GnRH stimulation test is time-consuming, costly, and requires repeated blood sampling. We aimed to develop an artificial intelligence (AI) prediction model to assist pediatric endocrinologists in decision making regarding the optimal timing to perform the GnRH stimulation test. We reviewed the medical charts of 161 girls who received the GnRH stimulation test from 1 August 2010 to 31 August 2021, and we selected 15 clinically relevant features for machine learning modeling. We chose the models with the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) to integrate into our computerized physician order entry (CPOE) system. The AUC values for the CPP diagnosis prediction model (LH ≥ 5 IU/L) were 0.884 with logistic regression, 0.912 with random forest, 0.942 with LightGBM, and 0.942 with XGBoost. For the Taiwan National Health Insurance treatment coverage prediction model (LH ≥ 10 IU/L), the AUC values were 0.909, 0.941, 0.934, and 0.881, respectively. In conclusion, our AI predictive system can assist pediatric endocrinologists when they are deciding whether a girl with suspected CPP should receive a GnRH stimulation test. With proper use, this prediction model may possibly avoid unnecessary invasive blood sampling for GnRH stimulation tests.