Identifying Patients at Risk of Acute Kidney Injury among Patients Receiving Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors: A Machine Learning Approach

Abstract

Background: The benefits of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICPis) in the treatment of patients with malignancies emerged recently, but immune-related adverse events (IRAEs), including acute kidney injury (AKI), cannot be ignored. The present study established and validated an ICPi-AKI prediction model based on machine learning algorithms to achieve early prediction of AKI events and timely intervention adjustment. Methods: We performed a retrospective study based on data from the First Medical Center of the PLA General Hospital. Patients with malignancy who received at least one dose of ICPi between January 2014 and December 2019 were included in the study. The characteristics of available variables were included after case review, and the baseline characteristics and clinical data of ICPi AKI and non-AKI patients were compared. After variable preprocessing, eight machine learning algorithms were used to construct a full variable availability model. Variable simplification models were constructed after screening important variables using the random forest recursive feature elimination method, and the performance of different machine learning methods and two types of modeling strategies were evaluated using multiple indicators. Results: Among the 1616 patients receiving checkpoint inhibitors, the overall incidence of AKI was 6.9% during the total follow-up time. Sixty-eight patients were associated with ICPi treatment after chart review, primarily in AKI stage 1 (70.5%), with a median time from first ICPi administration to AKI of 12.7 (IQR 2 to 56) weeks. The demographic characteristics, comorbidities, and proportions of malignancy types were similar between the ICPi-AKI and non-AKI groups, but there were significant differences in multiple characteristics, such as concomitant medications and laboratory test indicators. For model performance evaluation and comparison, the AUC values of all 38 variable availability models ranged from 0.7204–0.8241, and the AUC values of the simplicity model constructed using 16 significant variables ranged from 0.7528–0.8315. The neural networks model (NNs) and support vector machine (SVM) model had the best performance in the two types of modeling strategies, respectively; however, there was no significant difference in model performance comparison (p > 0.05). In addition, compared with the full variable availability model, the performance of the variable simplicity model was slightly improved. We also found that concomitant medications contributed more to the model prediction performance by screening the optimal feature combination. Conclusion: We successfully developed a machine learning-based ICPi-AKI prediction model and validated the best prediction performance of each machine model. It is reasonable to believe that clinical decision models driven by artificial intelligence can improve AKI prediction in patients with malignancies treated with ICPi. These models can be used to assist clinicians in the early identification of patients at high risk of AKI, support effective prevention and intervention, and ultimately improve the overall benefit of antitumor therapy in the target population.