Prediction of Clinical Remission with Adalimumab Therapy in Patients with Ulcerative Colitis by Fourier Transform–Infrared Spectroscopy Coupled with Machine Learning Algorithms

Abstract

We aimed to develop prediction models for clinical remission associated with adalimumab treatment in patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) using Fourier transform–infrared (FT–IR) spectroscopy coupled with machine learning (ML) algorithms. This prospective, observational, multicenter study enrolled 62 UC patients and 30 healthy controls. The patients were treated with adalimumab for 56 weeks, and clinical remission was evaluated using the Mayo score. Baseline fecal samples were collected and analyzed using FT–IR spectroscopy. Various data preprocessing methods were applied, and prediction models were established by 10-fold cross-validation using various ML methods. Orthogonal partial least squares–discriminant analysis (OPLS–DA) showed a clear separation of healthy controls and UC patients, applying area normalization and Pareto scaling. OPLS–DA models predicting short- and long-term remission (8 and 56 weeks) yielded area-under-the-curve values of 0.76 and 0.75, respectively. Logistic regression and a nonlinear support vector machine were selected as the best prediction models for short- and long-term remission, respectively (accuracy of 0.99). In external validation, prediction models for short-term (logistic regression) and long-term (decision tree) remission performed well, with accuracy values of 0.73 and 0.82, respectively. This was the first study to develop prediction models for clinical remission associated with adalimumab treatment in UC patients by fecal analysis using FT–IR spectroscopy coupled with ML algorithms. Logistic regression, nonlinear support vector machines, and decision tree were suggested as the optimal prediction models for remission, and these were noninvasive, simple, inexpensive, and fast analyses that could be applied to personalized treatments.