Spatiotemporal Variations in Actual Evapotranspiration Based on LPJ Model and Its Driving Mechanism in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Abstract

Under the influence of climate change and human activities, the ecohydrological processes in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) present new evolution characteristics at different temporal and spatial scales. Research on the evolution and driving mechanism of key ecohydrological element in the TGRA under the changing environment has important theoretical and practical values for correctly understanding the ecohydrological situation in the reservoir area and guiding the coordinated development of water and soil resources. In this study, the LPJ (Lund–Potsdam–Jena) model was used to simulate and analyze the spatiotemporal variations in evapotranspiration (AET) from 1981 to 2020. Sen’s slope and sensitivity analysis methods were used to quantify individual contributions of climate and human factors to changes in AET in different periods. The results indicate the following: (1) The simulation accuracy of the LPJ model for AET in the TGRA was high, with a certainty coefficient (R2), Nash efficiency coefficient (NSE), and mean relative error (MRE) of 0.89, 0.76, and 4.32%, respectively. (2) The multiyear average AET was 650.71 mm and increased at a rate of 21.63 mm/10a from 1981 to 2020. The annual distribution of AET showed a unimodal seasonal variation trend. The peak value occurred in July, reaching 113.02 mm, and the valley value occurred in January and December, less than 13 mm. (3) AET increased by 5.60% and 6.28% before and after impoundment, respectively. The contribution rate of human activities increased significantly from −3.75% before impoundment to 26.95% after impoundment, and the contribution ratios of climate change were 89.39% and 73.09%, respectively, during these two periods. From 1981 to 2020, AET increased by 5.28%, in which the contribution ratios of climate and human factors were 89.39% and 10.61%, respectively.