Predictive Factors for Bilateral Disease in Papillary Microcarcinoma: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Abstract

Background: Based on risk stratification, the therapeutic options in papillary microcarcinoma (PTMC) can be active surveillance or surgery. Multifocal tumor occurrence can be decisive in determining the treatment strategy. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors for bilateral tumor occurrence in PTMC to enable individual therapy planning. Methods: A total of 545 PTMC patients who underwent thyroidectomy from 2008 to 2020 were retrieved. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate risk factors for bilateral PTMC. Results: 25.1% (n = 137) of all patients had multifocal PTMC, and 13.2% (n = 72) bilateral PTMC, respectively. In contrast to the maximum tumor size, the total tumor size significantly influenced a bilateral tumor manifestation (median total tumor size 5 mm versus 8.5 mm for bilateral PTMC, p < 0.001). A cut-off level for the total tumor size of >10 mm resulted in a sensitivity and specificity of 29.2% and 94.7%, respectively, in predicting a bilateral tumor manifestation, AUC 0.680 (95% CI, 0.611–0.748, p < 0.001). A cut-off of >4 tumors showed a sensitivity of 99.4% and a specificity of 97.5%, AUC 0.897 (95% CI, 0.870–0.924, p < 0.001) in predicting bilaterality. Conclusion: We could demonstrate for the first time that a total tumor size of >10 mm and more than four tumors significantly increased the risk of bilateral PTMC tumor involvement. These findings enable a risk-adjusted patient treatment.