Leveraging Remote Sensing Data for Yield Prediction with Deep Transfer Learning

Abstract

Remote sensing data represent one of the most important sources for automized yield prediction. High temporal and spatial resolution, historical record availability, reliability, and low cost are key factors in predicting yields around the world. Yield prediction as a machine learning task is challenging, as reliable ground truth data are difficult to obtain, especially since new data points can only be acquired once a year during harvest. Factors that influence annual yields are plentiful, and data acquisition can be expensive, as crop-related data often need to be captured by experts or specialized sensors. A solution to both problems can be provided by deep transfer learning based on remote sensing data. Satellite images are free of charge, and transfer learning allows recognition of yield-related patterns within countries where data are plentiful and transfers the knowledge to other domains, thus limiting the number of ground truth observations needed. Within this study, we examine the use of transfer learning for yield prediction, where the data preprocessing towards histograms is unique. We present a deep transfer learning framework for yield prediction and demonstrate its successful application to transfer knowledge gained from US soybean yield prediction to soybean yield prediction within Argentina. We perform a temporal alignment of the two domains and improve transfer learning by applying several transfer learning techniques, such as L2-SP, BSS, and layer freezing, to overcome catastrophic forgetting and negative transfer problems. Lastly, we exploit spatio-temporal patterns within the data by applying a Gaussian process. We are able to improve the performance of soybean yield prediction in Argentina by a total of 19% in terms of RMSE and 39% in terms of R2 compared to predictions without transfer learning and Gaussian processes. This proof of concept for advanced transfer learning techniques for yield prediction and remote sensing data in the form of histograms can enable successful yield prediction, especially in emerging and developing countries, where reliable data are usually limited.