Hypervolume Niche Dynamics and Global Invasion Risk of Phenacoccus solenopsis under Climate Change

Abstract

As a globally invasive quarantine pest, the cotton mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis, is spreading rapidly, posing serious threats against agricultural and forestry production and biosecurity. In recent years, the niche conservatism hypothesis has been widely debated, which is particularly evident in invasive biology research. Identifying the niche dynamics of P. solenopsis, as well as assessing its global invasion risk, is of both theoretical and practical importance. Based on 462 occurrence points and 19 bioclimatic variables, we used n-dimensional hypervolume analysis to quantify the multidimensional climatic niche of this pest in both its native and invasive ranges. We examined niche conservatism and further optimized the MaxEnt model parameters to predict the global invasion risk of P. solenopsis under both current and future climate conditions. Our findings indicated that the niche hypervolume of this pest in invasive ranges was significantly larger than that in its native ranges, with 99.45% of the niche differentiation contributed by niche expansion, with the remaining less than 1% explained by space replacement. Niche expansion was most evident in Oceania and Eurasia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.83) and true skill statistic (0.62) indicated the model’s robust performance. The areas of suitable habitats for P. solenopsis are increasing significantly and the northward spread is obvious in future climate change scenarios. North Africa, northern China, Mediterranean regions, and northern Europe had an increased invasion risk of P. solenopsis. This study provided scientific support for the early warning and control of P. solenopsis.