Predicting the Distribution of Neoceratitis asiatica (Diptera: Tephritidae), a Primary Pest of Goji Berry in China, under Climate Change

Abstract

Climate warming affects the growth and development of pests, resulting in changes in their geographical distribution, which increases the difficulty in terms of prevention and control. The fruit fly, Neoceratitis asiatica (Becker), is a predominant frugivorous pest that causes serious yield loss in the goji berry, Lycium barbarum L. In recent years, with the expansion of cultivation area, the damage induced by the pest has become increasingly severe, significantly impeding the production of the goji berry. In this study, the potential suitable habitats of N. asiatica under current and future climate scenarios were simulated and predicted using the optimal MaxEnt model, based on the screening distribution records and environmental factors. The changes in the pest distribution under climate change were determined using ArcGIS. The results showed that the best combination of parameters for MaxEnt were feature combination (FC) = LQPT and regularization multiplier (RM) = 1. The dominant environmental factors influencing pest distribution were mean temperature of driest quarter, mean temperature of coldest quarter and precipitation of coldest quarter. Under different climate conditions, the suitable habitats of the pest primarily ranged between 27°–47° N and 73°–115° E. Under current climate conditions, the area of moderately and highly suitable habitats was 42.18 × 104 km2, and mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia (13.68 × 104 km2), Gansu (9.40 × 104 km2), Ningxia (5.07 × 104 km2), Qinghai (4.10 × 104 km2), and Xinjiang (3.97 × 104 km2) Provinces. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area was projected to be lower than the current ones, except SSP245–2050s and SSP370–2070s, and the centroids of suitable habitats were mainly shifted to the northeast, except SSP370–2050s and SSP585–2070s. Our results provide valuable guidance for the monitoring and management of N. asiatica, as well as the selection of pest-free goji berry cultivation sites.