Advancing Water Quality Research: K-Nearest Neighbor Coupled with the Improved Grey Wolf Optimizer Algorithm Model Unveils New Possibilities for Dry Residue Prediction

Abstract

Monitoring stations have been established to combat water pollution, improve the ecosystem, promote human health, and facilitate drinking water production. However, continuous and extensive monitoring of water is costly and time-consuming, resulting in limited datasets and hindering water management research. This study focuses on developing an optimized K-nearest neighbor (KNN) model using the improved grey wolf optimization (I-GWO) algorithm to predict dry residue quantities. The model incorporates 20 physical and chemical parameters derived from a dataset of 400 samples. Cross-validation is employed to assess model performance, optimize parameters, and mitigate the risk of overfitting. Four folds are created, and each fold is optimized using 11 distance metrics and their corresponding weighting functions to determine the best model configuration. Among the evaluated models, the Jaccard distance metric with inverse squared weighting function consistently demonstrates the best performance in terms of statistical errors and coefficients for each fold. By averaging predictions from the models in the four folds, an estimation of the overall model performance is obtained. The resulting model exhibits high efficiency, with remarkably low errors reflected in the values of R, R2, R2ADJ, RMSE, and EPM, which are reported as 0.9979, 0.9958, 0.9956, 41.2639, and 3.1061, respectively. This study reveals a compelling non-linear correlation between physico-chemical water attributes and the content of dry tailings, indicating the ability to accurately predict dry tailing quantities. By employing the proposed methodology to enhance water quality models, it becomes possible to overcome limitations in water quality management and significantly improve the precision of predictions regarding critical water parameters.