Forecast Horizon of Dynamic Lot Sizing Problem with Perishable Inventory and Multiple Chain Stores: Shipping and Stockout Cost

Abstract

Perishable products are very common, but managing inventory of perishable products can be very challenging for firms, especially in distribution systems, including multiple chain stores. In this environment, we consider a dynamic lot-sizing problem faced by a distribution center that dis-patches a single perishable product to multiple chain stores. Demand cannot be backlogged, but it does not have to be satisfied; unsatisfied demand means stockout (lost sale). The first step is to transform the total profit function into a special total cost function. Our next step is to explore the properties of the optimal solution and use them to formulate a dynamic programming algorithm to solve the problem. Furthermore, we establish forecast and decision horizon results, which help the operation manager to decide the precise forecast horizon in a rolling decision-making process. Based on the model setting and the methods of dynamic programming, we obtained two interesting findings: (1) the maximized profit objective function is equivalent to the minimized cost objective function, and (2) the famous zero inventory property conditionally holds in the inventory management of perishable products. On an extensive test bed, useful insights were obtained on the impact of the lifetime of the product and cost parameters on the total cost and length of the forecast horizon. Thus, the contributions of this study are as follows: (1) we explore two structure policies in an optimal solution to devise efficient algorithms to reduce computational complexity; (2) we provide a sufficient condition for forecasting and decision horizons; and (3) we determine that, for a given fixed cost, the median forecast horizon first increases with the lifetime of the product and stockout cost and then remains invariable when it reaches a certain level.