Affiliation:
1. School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China
2. Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Hangzhou 310028, China
3. Center of Agricultural and Rural Development, Laboratory of Agricultural & Rural Development and Intelligent Computing, School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University, 866 Yuhangtang Road, Hangzhou 310058, China
4. Alibaba Group, Alibaba Xixi Campus, 969 Wenyi Road, Hangzhou 311121, China
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on people’s lives, making accurate prediction of epidemic trends a central focus in COVID-19 research. This study innovatively utilizes a spatiotemporal heterogeneity analysis (GTNNWR) model to predict COVID-19 deaths, simulate pandemic prevention scenarios, and quantitatively assess their preventive effects. The results show that the GTNNWR model exhibits superior predictive capacity to the conventional infectious disease dynamics model (SEIR model), which is approximately 9% higher, and reflects the spatial and temporal heterogeneity well. In scenario simulations, this study established five scenarios for epidemic prevention measures, and the results indicate that masks are the most influential single preventive measure, reducing deaths by 5.38%, followed by vaccination at 3.59%, and social distancing mandates at 2.69%. However, implementing single stringent preventive measures does not guarantee effectiveness across all states and months, such as California in January 2025, Florida in August 2024, and March–April 2024 in the continental U.S. On the other hand, the combined implementation of preventive measures proves 5 to-10-fold more effective than any single stringent measure, reducing deaths by 27.2%. The deaths under combined implementation measures never exceed that of standard preventive measures in any month. The research found that the combined implementation of measures in mask wearing, vaccination, and social distancing during winter can reduce the deaths by approximately 45%, which is approximately 1.5–3-fold higher than in the other seasons. This study provides valuable insights for COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control in America.
Funder
National Key Research and Development Program of China
Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China
National Natural Science Foundation of China
Key Research Projects of Humanities and Social Sciences
Provincial Key R&D Program of Zhejiang
Department of Science and Technology of Zhejiang Province
China Geological Survey
British Geological Survey
Russian Geological Research Institute
International Commission on Stratigraphy
Commission on the Management & Application of Geoscience Information
American Association of Petroleum Geologists
International Association of Mathematical Geosciences
International Association on the Genesis of Ore Deposits
Commission of Geological Map of the World
International Association of Geomorphologists
International Palaeontological Association
International Association of Sedimentologists
Subject
Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous),Computers in Earth Sciences,Geography, Planning and Development
Reference73 articles.
1. (2021). Modeling COVID-19 scenarios for the United States. Nat. Med., 27, 94–105.
2. COVID-19 outbreak: An overview;Ciotti;Chemotherapy,2020
3. The COVID-19 pandemic;Ciotti;Crit. Rev. Clin. Lab. Sci.,2020
4. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) (2024, January 09). p. CDC Provides Credible COVID-19 Health Information to the U.S, Available online: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html.
5. Social and behavioral consequences of mask policies during the COVID-19 pandemic;Betsch;Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA,2020