Effects of Land Use/Cover Change on Terrestrial Carbon Stocks in the Yellow River Basin of China from 2000 to 2030

Author:

Zhang Jiejun1,Yang Jie1,Liu Pengfei1234ORCID,Liu Yi1,Zheng Yiwen2,Shen Xiaoyu1,Li Bingchen2,Song Hongquan234ORCID,Liang Zongzheng5

Affiliation:

1. Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development & Collaborative Innovation Center on Yellow River Civilization of Henan Province, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China

2. College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China

3. Institute of Urban Big Data, College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China

4. Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Henan University, Ministry of Education, Kaifeng 475004, China

5. Country and Area Studies Academy, Beijing Foreign Studies University, Beijing 100089, China

Abstract

Accurately assessing and predicting the impacts of land use changes on ecosystem carbon stocks in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) and exploring the optimization of land use structure to increase ecosystem carbon stocks are of great practical significance for China to achieve the goal of “double carbon”. In this study, we used multi-year remote sensing data, meteorological data and statistical data to measure the ecosystem carbon stock in the YRB from 2000 to 2020 based on the InVEST model, and then simulated and measured the ecosystem carbon stock under four different land use scenarios coupled with the FLUS model in 2030. The results show that, from 2000 to 2020, urban expansion in the YRB continued, but woodland and grassland grew more slowly. Carbon stock showed an increasing trend during the first 20 years, with an overall increase of 7.2 megatons, or 0.23%. Simulating the four land use scenarios in 2030, carbon stock will decrease the most under the cropland protection scenario, with a decrease of 17.7 megatons compared with 2020. However, carbon stock increases the most under the ecological protection scenario, with a maximum increase of 9.1 megatons. Furthermore, distinct trends in carbon storage were observed across different regions, with significant increases in the upstream under the natural development scenario, in the midstream under the ecological protection scenario and in the downstream under the cropland protection scenario. We suggest that the upstream should maintain the existing development mode, with ecological protection prioritized in the middle reaches and farmland protection prioritized in the lower reaches. This study provides a scientific basis for the carbon balance, land use structure adjustment and land management decision-making in the YRB.

Funder

National Natural Science Foundation of China

Natural Science Foundation of Henan

Higher Education Teaching Reform Research and Practice Program of Henan University

Publisher

MDPI AG

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