Uncertainty Quantification of Trajectory Clustering Applied to Ocean Ensemble Forecasts

Author:

Vieira Guilherme S.ORCID,Rypina Irina I.ORCID,Allshouse Michael R.ORCID

Abstract

Partitioning ocean flows into regions dynamically distinct from their surroundings based on material transport can assist search-and-rescue planning by reducing the search domain. The spectral clustering method partitions the domain by identifying fluid particle trajectories that are similar. The partitioning validity depends on the accuracy of the ocean forecasting, which is subject to several sources of uncertainty: model initialization, limited knowledge of the physical processes, boundary conditions, and forcing terms. Instead of a single model output, multiple realizations are produced spanning a range of potential outcomes, and trajectory clustering is used to identify robust features and quantify the uncertainty of the ensemble-averaged results. First, ensemble statistics are used to investigate the cluster sensitivity to the spectral clustering method free-parameters and the forecast parameters for the analytic Bickley jet, a geostrophic flow model. Then, we analyze an operational coastal ocean ensemble forecast and compare the clustering results to drifter trajectories south of Martha’s Vineyard. This approach identifies regions of low uncertainty where drifters released within a cluster predominantly remain there throughout the window of analysis. Drifters released in regions of high uncertainty tend to either enter neighboring clusters or deviate from all predicted outcomes.

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Fluid Flow and Transfer Processes,Mechanical Engineering,Condensed Matter Physics

Cited by 8 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3